How to Spend Money on the 2020 Election
Sunday, October 4th, 2020 06:20 pmCaveat: I'm not an expert, this is not legal advice, and this is not a request for a donation to any particular group.
But also there is the idea that our culture seems to really value some very valueless things while simultaneously undervalueing or seeing no value at all in some extremely valuable things - like motherhood, art, caregiving of all types, and so on. What I think we're doing with these discussions is working out what "value" means to our community and how we really can make our way to true giving - it's hard though and messy I think.
I think it's important to distinguish between "what our culture values" and "what pays well." Markets can take on a life of their own, so while you may be able to correlate values with money within a particular market (e.g., Americans have valued house size over quality of construction), comparing dollars paid in one market to dollars paid for something else doesn't really work.
For a silly example, I got paid a lot more to write software for governments than most sex workers get paid to give people orgasms. Does that mean our culture values effective property tax systems more than sex? No, it just means the market for people who know how to write code is tighter than the market for people who can have sex.
For a less silly example, I pay $5 in gas (plus car depreciation) to drive from Boulder to Denver and back. I pay nothing to ride around town on my bike. Does that mean I value driving more than bicycling and Denver more than Boulder? No, I enjoy riding a lot more and prefer to spend time in Boulder. It's just that the nature of cars involves spending money, but bikes not so much.
In my ideal world, the community makes sure everyone's well fed and cared for, even if there isn't a lucrative market for what they do. Like clean air, safe roads, and public broadcasting, art is a public good. You can't quantify how much value a person will get from artwork, so it's not well suited to markets with supply and demand. The fact that artists have trouble making a living doesn't mean we don't value art; it's just a reflection that our economic system isn't a perfect tool for ensuring our values are actualized.
Remember: economists use "willingness to pay" as a substitute for personal values, but that's just because it's a lot easier to do math with the former. Money is a useful tool for pursuing our values, but it does not straightforwardly represent our values. Don't confuse a pencil for a poem.
Clearly, Chimaltenango is a wretched hive of scum and villainy.
Lonely Planet advised us not to leave our things unattended there on account of bag-slashing, but I didn't think through the scenario of theives robbing me before I got off the bus. We discovered the theft a few minutes into our ride to Lake Atitlan; too far to turn back and wrestle the theives to the ground.
We spent most of the ride making light of the situation:
Inventory of valuables still in possession:
Everything else could be replaced or let go with a minimum of greiving and frustration.
While it's clearly to the immediate personal benefit of the thieves to steal petty cash and old camera equipment, in the long run it hurts their community, and in turn their chance at true prosperity. While I know that not every Guatemalan is a theif, others who hear stories of theft on busses may conclude that Latinos are untrustworthy. They then don't treat them with respect and pay them a poor wage when they work in the north, lowering the flow of remissions to the south. They may also think twice about traveling in "the third world;" if they do, they may choose to stay in expensive foreign-owned hotels and take direct shuttles run by companies that don't keep their money locally. I certainly wouldn't recommend anyone stay in a hotel or eat at a restaurant in Chimaltenango, a place tarnished by the actions of a few who deny respect to people because of the color of their face and the style of their luggage.
I figured, when the Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae thing hit the tarmac, the best place to be would have been in foreign currency, particularly the yuan which had been held artificially low for quite some time in order to facilitate international trade. But for the last few days, I've been reading that Asian stocks were flailing wildly and Asian currency is losing ground against the dollar. How can that be?I've been late in answering in part because I was busy and in part because I haven't learned as much about currency markets in the past few months as I have about other markets. But here's a stab at an answer.
What is a reasonable estimate for the ACTUAL value of the mortgage-backed "junk" securities that $810 billion of my tax dollars bought?The answer to that question has fluctuated every few days recently, so note that everything I say could be wrong soon.
For those of us with relatively insignificant (in comparison... obviously not insignificant to ME) bank holdings, no credit debt to speak of, no large loans outstanding and no stocks/bonds/other things of that nature, what will the practical personal fallout of the bailout be, if any?The correct answer to that question requires predicting the future. Economists spend a lot of time predicting the future. But there's a lot of variation between economists' predictions, so you can often pick the prediction you like best and pretend that's what the future holds. "What will happen?" is not nearly as clear as "What could happen?"
If I were informed about the situation at more than a casual level, are there actions I could take that would have a substantial impact on my current or future well-being? (I have some retirement funds, they're all TIAA/CREF and not easily accessible to do anything with them, and I'm not really planning on trying to do anything with them for another three decades.)Short Answer:
My current assumption is that the answer is "no", and that this is a situation, much like 9/11, where more information has at best a marginal benefit, and could do significant (emotional) harm by making me all upset about something I really can't affect, and so, like the dangers posed by nearby supernovae, asteroid impacts, random spree killers, rampaging sewer alligators, and the like, it's really best to just ignore it for the most part.